It’s been a long time since I shared my investment experience with you. The following is purely my personal opinion. Discussion is welcome. I don’t have the time to talk to you, I’m so tired. I write these things to help people in need, not to show off my skills.
Last year, I was busy studying different markets every day, basically spending the time watching orders-giving orders-watching orders-closing positions. The number of fans has increased, the number of real warehouse students has increased, and with it comes a greater workload, and last year my physical condition has also experienced ups and downs - I will share some of my experience with you while I am resting.
Recently, I have also read the answers of my friends. First of all, I fully affirm everyone’s answers. I always think that investment methods or realms or analysis of high and low are meaningless. Making money is justice, and those who do not make money are paper tigers. .
It is still found that many fans and friends are still immersed in the "trading system" that can overcome everything lost.
Many people don't know the process behind an investment. Let me put it simply: analysis-find varieties-build trading strategies-wait for opportunities-hold positions-focus on trend variables-close positions. In fact, this is a process with no secrets, but I have seen that many people with ulterior motives always talk about this process in a mysterious way, including many plagiarists who take it out of context, or do it for the sake of taking it out of context. But I have to say one more thing, I will give a suggestion to almost everyone who asks me a question: that is to study carefully or study the trading rules of related varieties and other learning programs.
Although many people don't say it, I guess they always say that I am a stingy person, but there is a problem here: I don't know if those questioners have thought about why I let you go to school. I can take responsibility here Said that I didn't perfunctory any fans who asked questions. Everything I tell you is "knowledge under my framework", and no matter whether your knowledge comes from the same source as mine, whether you can fully understand my words is unknown to me, and I The choice is very simple. I told you where I learned it.
I once answered a question, that is, the issue of taking doctrine in investment. Many people think "you can tell me" or "it's too much or nothing now", but there is a huge gap in this answer without cause and only effect. The problem is that I can detect the change of the wrong information but the person who brought it can't. You can think about how much it takes to find a job and get a promotion and salary increase. Why do some people think that they will pay less than going to work in this more difficult field of investment?
1. The following is a detailed analysis process
Many people think that analysis is drawing lines back and forth against the disk and the K-line, but why have they ever thought about why the market comes? What is the force driving it? Why does this force push it to run in a certain direction? When does the push end? What kind of process will go through in the middle? What force will interrupt this original force? There are many questions like this.
I once wrote an article to teach everyone how to use K-line skills, but I often mention one point afterward-based on the fact that all the techniques on the disk are just blind people's guesses. For example: open a book at random and see if it is How do you define a trend? Answer: To be long means that the market has been running upwards, the high point keeps making new highs, and the low point keeps making new highs. But I have a question, how do you know that the next low point must be a new high? It really can't be done technically. From a technical point of view, there is only probability. For example, if the market continues to break through previous highs, then the probability of continuing to break through is greater than the probability of turning around and falling now, or some indicators such as overbought, strength, and volatility can be added to cooperate. But will the more it rises, the more panicked it will be? Everyone, please think carefully. .
The power to promote or unstop the market is caused by the interest forces behind the trend itself. How to understand it? It's very simple. For example, I shorted iron ore in August last year. For the first time, the source of power leading the rise in iron ore was the Vale dam in Brazil on February 1. After that, the futures only rose for a day before stopping, but why did they keep rising? A hurricane hit Australia's main iron ore production area during the same period, resulting in a shutdown of production and the destruction of some machinery. Let me first talk about the two largest iron ore exporting countries in the world, one is Brazil and the other is Australia. Together, these two countries account for most of the export volume. Then everyone knows that "when the demand remains unchanged, the sudden decrease in supply will lead to an increase in price", which is the driving force for the increase.
So when did the market stop? First of all, I remember that in July or the end of June, I was too lazy to turn it over. Brazil and Australia successively announced the resumption of production, but the dealers still used the "production reduction" hype, which led to the intervention of the Chinese government, and the adjustment of the margin did not work. It was found that it was caused by the concentrated speculation of overseas funds. This is the fundamental reason why the market stopped instead of a double top at the price of 900. In many cases, the form is not useless but needs to be combined.
Afterwards, the state continued to attack and directly limited the production capacity of steelmaking, which is equivalent to directly weakening the demand side, so the price will naturally fall. This is the fundamental driving force behind the market. If you are under such a certain market, who is easier to do the market or even guess? Of course, to achieve this step is not just relying on these, analogy scarcity, substitutability, time node, demand, and various sensitive change nodes must be grasped. I haven't used technology for a long time. Of course, I can't obliterate that I started with technology at first, but the technology system fits a sentence very well: the past cannot be changed and the future cannot be measured. This is the result of what I have been doing for many years, condensed into one sentence. But I want to tell you that technology is not the end, but the beginning. I do not deny that technology can make money, I have made money before.
Second, thinking, every investor must learn to get opportunities from information!
There is one primary condition for investing, which is to constantly think. All real big opportunities come from continuous thinking and continuous discovery. In fact, the most important thing is the way of thinking. All the news today is packaged in two or even three layers. Many people only know one thing or don’t know it at all. Why? What the news gives you is what you want to see, not what you want to see. I also include policies in this news, and they are all the same. To give another example, in order to suppress the price of pork at the end of last year, the Chinese government can go to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to check the news. Every day, XX production is restored month-on-month, without mentioning how many people died overall. If you don't have your own main line of analysis, would you still think about shorting soybean meal after watching this kind of news every day? In fact, all analysis must start from the actual point of focus, not out of context or fragmentation of dots and lines. The most terrifying thing about the current media is that it is constantly trying to smash our thinking system with fragmented things. There is no reason but to give You are a fruit after being packaged, as an investor, the result can only be unlucky for whoever believes it.
The remaining question is the trading system. What is a trading system? All trading systems must be based on the results of your analysis. It is nothing more than time nodes and space coordination. Just wait for the market to go up and then do it. It's so advanced, to be honest, I used to be deeply involved in it. My own trading system used to require 14 pages of A4 paper, but now it is simplified to the above sentence, gone. I have read a lot of technical books, and every time I read one and add a set of methods, and then I try to piece it together by myself. I take it apart and click on it, and then I think it is awesome. . . Now look at how ridiculous it is.
Let’s talk about trading psychology. Mind is like water, it’s for the technical side. When it comes to me, there’s no mind like water. When I get to the position, I’ll just wait for the dealer to finish washing the dishes before getting in the car. I really wanted to write more about this paragraph for everyone to identify, but To be honest, I forgot a lot. I used to remember some things at that time, and now I forget more and more, of course, it’s too old to make trouble. It's not worth doing a thousand points in the market that I don't understand. Why? It is said that I ran a thousand points, but it is actually judging from the results. Who knew that I could run so much before I ran a thousand points? Who can be sure that it will not be adjusted? Since you can't understand it, why do you do it?
For those who can understand and understand the analysis, the market after many deduction and verifications, let the dealer wash the market, and I used to say that the head or bottom area is chaotic. I used to pursue the limit , that is actually just another kind of ignorance, what is the limit? Has anyone made it clear today? The dealer dare not and will not be sure. Now that I understand it, for me, I will collect money if I understand it, and give up if I don’t understand it. I often teach my students just one sentence, you can avoid many mistakes by excluding transactions that you don't understand. You can see for yourself what I did last year. In my previous diary, I have written everything I have done, so I won’t say it again to avoid misunderstandings. What I want to explain is that I didn’t make many transactions, and I earned what I should have earned.
There are still a lot of things I want to write. It is late at night and I am tired, so I will come here first. I will continue to write when I have time.
Author: Kim Seung-ho
Learn the correct trading ideas and capture market trends in advance!
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