The opposite of the unemployment rate figure is the employment figure (The Employment Data), the most representative of which is the non-agricultural employment data.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data is one of the U.S. unemployment data, which reflects the number of new jobs other than the agricultural employment population. It is released at the same time as the unemployment rate. :30 is the data of the previous month released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Non-agricultural employment data is one of the most important economic indicators in the United States, and it is the most volatile economic data affecting the foreign exchange market.
According to its influence and force, it can bring different changes to the economic market.
A decrease in nonfarm payrolls means fewer jobs in consumer and service industries; an increase in nonfarm payrolls means more jobs in consumer and service industries.
That is to say, when the number of non-agricultural employment decreases, it indicates that the social economy is slow, then consumption will naturally decrease accordingly, and jobs in consumer and service industries will also decrease.
When the number of non-agricultural employment increases, it indicates that the social economy is faster, then consumption will naturally increase accordingly, and jobs in consumer and service industries will also increase.
So when the non-farm payrolls number rises sharply, it signals a healthy economy, which in theory should be positive for the exchange rate and could signal higher interest rates, with potentially higher interest rates prompting the foreign exchange market to push the country's currency even more value.
And when the non-agricultural employment figures fall sharply, it indicates an unhealthy economic situation, which should be harmful to the exchange rate in theory, and may indicate lower interest rates, while the potential bottom interest rate is difficult to promote more interest rates in the foreign exchange market. boost the value of the country's currency.
The high non-agricultural employment data proves that the U.S. job market is developing healthily, and the increase in the employment rate indicates that the U.S. economy is booming. Then, this will lead to a rise in the U.S. dollar, and gold and silver are inversely proportional to the U.S. dollar; Dollar.
According to the impact of non-agricultural data on gold, before the release of non-agricultural data, investors should carefully analyze the recently announced employment data and exclude those expected data games. As long as the final non-agricultural data maintains growth momentum, it can indicate that the US job market is still recovering (Since the U.S. job market is recovering, the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike and quantitative easing policy must also be combined.)
In summary, the non-agricultural data can have the following four effects on the price trend of gold.
The first impact: the non-agricultural employment data is greater than the previous value and greater than expected, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold.
The second impact: the non-agricultural employment data is smaller than the previous value and lower than expected, which is negative for the US dollar and bullish for gold.
The third impact: the non-agricultural employment data is smaller than expected but larger than the previous value, gold rises first and then falls.
The fourth impact: the non-agricultural employment data is larger than expected but smaller than the previous value, gold falls first and then rises.
The above four judgment methods are the conclusions drawn from non-agricultural data tracking and statistics over the years, that is, the impact of non-agricultural data and gold prices is inseparable from the previous value and expectations of non-agricultural data.
Before the non-agricultural data is released and after the non-agricultural data is released, how should investors deploy and operate gold? Here, take the US non-agricultural data released on June 7, 2013 as an example, as shown in the table below.
Observing the changes in the non-agricultural data in June 2013 in the above table, the previous value was 165,000, and the market expected 165,000. It can be seen that the market does not have much expectations for the increase in non-agricultural employment.
The previous value of the unemployment rate was 7.5%, and the market expected 7.5%.
The impact of the four types of data summarized above on gold (the first case: the non-agricultural employment data is greater than the previous value and expectations, which is bullish for the US dollar and bearish for gold; the second case: the non-agricultural employment data is smaller than the previous value and expectations, which is negative for the US dollar, Gold is bullish; the third case: the non-agricultural employment data is smaller than expected but larger than the previous value, then gold will rise first and then fall; the fourth case: the non-agricultural employment data is larger than expected but smaller than the previous value, gold will fall first and then rise) to judge.
The actual non-agricultural employment data is 175,000, which is greater than the previous value and market expectations. Therefore, the second, third and fourth situations do not exist, and only the first situation can be considered, that is, non-agricultural employment The employment data is greater than the previous value and expectations, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold.
Risk reminder: remember to take profit and stop loss when trading, and put risk management first.
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