Unemployment also has a certain impact on gold prices.
Unemployment rate refers to the number of unemployed labor force among the employed population who meet all employment conditions for a certain period of time. It aims to measure the idle labor capacity and is the main indicator reflecting the unemployment status of a country or region.
In the United States, the unemployment rate is announced on the first Friday of each month, and in Taiwan, it is announced by the Accounting Office of the Executive Yuan on the 23rd of each month. Monthly changes in unemployment data can appropriately reflect economic developments.
The unemployment rate index can be used to determine the employment situation of the entire labor force within a certain period of time. For a long time, the unemployment rate figure has been regarded as an indicator reflecting the overall economic situation, which indirectly affects the price of gold, that is, a decrease in the unemployment rate represents the healthy development of the overall economy, a positive dollar, and a decline in the price of gold; an increase in the unemployment rate represents economic development A slowing recession is negative for the dollar, and gold prices rise.
Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist of the Princeton Economic Prospects Group, said in the book "The Secret of Economic Indicators" that there are two reasons why the market is so sensitive to non-agricultural data. First, it can It reflects the latest employment situation in the United States; second, it effectively predicts the overall situation of the US economy.
The non-agricultural employment data is the first important economic data released every month, and it is released a week after the survey results, which can reflect the latest employment situation in the United States.
The release of non-farm payrolls will be accompanied by other employment announcements from the Labor Department, which is very effective in predicting the overall situation of the US economy.
At the same time, Baumol also pointed out that since about 70% of the growth of the US economy is dominated by internal consumption, the employment data can predict the overall consumption situation in the United States.
Therefore, compared with the non-agricultural data, the monthly fluctuation of the unemployment rate is much smaller, and the error between the unemployment rate before and after the revision is also smaller, which is much less speculative fun for the market.
It is difficult to predict non-agricultural data. The U.S. Department of Labor conducts monthly surveys of companies, including employment conditions in various industries, hourly wages, and overtime conditions. It also conducts household surveys on households. After obtaining the survey results, the data will be collected. Input the model, calculate the non-agricultural data, and get the initial value.
In addition to the difficulty of predicting the initial value, the "unpredictable" non-agricultural data also lies in the fact that after the initial value is announced, it is often revised in the next two months.
For investors, non-agricultural data is not only for the United States, but also for the world. For the most sensitive foreign exchange market, non-agricultural data has a particularly huge influence.
Therefore, on non-agricultural nights, investors and analysts look at the non-agricultural employment rate instead of the unemployment rate.
Risk reminder: remember to take profit and stop loss when trading, and put risk management first.
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