I haven’t written an experience for a long time. I have been very busy and I am constantly improving myself, so I will not post some transitional experience, so as not to cause unnecessary complicated thinking for everyone.
I also started learning from technical analysis all the way before, and I have been using it properly. However, I have gradually withdrawn from technical analysis, verification, strategy construction and other fields in the early years. Now I only retain some techniques for placing orders and leaving the market.
From a technical point of view, it is impossible to solve the trend problem at any time. What is a trend? In terms of my own experience - in terms of technical understanding of trends: seeing prices moving in a certain direction. Or predict the possible future price trend based on some reversal patterns. But in the final analysis, whether it is a continuation or a reversal after the reversal point, technology is not clear, and technology often appears to be self-consistent for the sake of logic. I conclude that I know neither the past nor the future.
The above is my many years of experience. I have also read many 40 books on the theoretical essence of technology. Later, I gradually discovered that many authors actually have other analysis methods. what money? After all, it is the money of risk management strategy.
The basis of reasonable risk management is what people often say about capital management and wind-report ratio. Use a system with a probability higher than 50% to trade, rely on a 1:2 or 1:3 wind-report ratio to win, and pass The versatility or flexibility of the strategy to avoid the problem of inaccurate selection of entry points.
But there is a question, can technology answer who is driving the trend? The answer is a necessary no, obviously. How long have I been wondering why I can only earn some uncertain money instead of certain? Now it seems to me that I actually didn't understand anything. This statement is definitely not to belittle technology. Technology can indeed benefit a person who does not understand other analysis methods at all. I admit that I have done it myself, so I can better appreciate the huge difference.
For many technical people, they have a lot of understanding of the concept of adjustment, for example, the trend comes and goes from the adjustment, and the adjustment is the node of placing an order or leaving the market, etc. . But if it is a trend, why not place an order while the trend is running instead of waiting for adjustments before placing an order? The reason is very simple - I don't know if the market can continue. Some short-term traders will use the momentum of the market to trade momentum, which is also a way but not a long-term way.
The price operation of varieties is logical. There is no completely random market. Pure randomness is completely unrealistic. There are corresponding reasons for the beginning and end of each market. It can be said that there are only a few main lines. To give a few simple examples:
Gold - currency attributes and hedging attributes, if quantified, we know that the power of risk attributes is greater than that of currency attributes. Just like when Pfizer released the vaccine years ago, I wrote about short selling. This is because the risk aversion attribute is fading. Although currency also plays a role in it, it is not as "obvious" as the risk. Due to the advent of the vaccine, the expectation of further easing by the Fed has been reduced, and the expectation of further depreciation of the real currency has been greatly weakened. This is a currency attribute, but everyone can see that gold fell by 110 US dollars for a short time on the day Pfizer released the news Oz, this is the difference, Pfizer, Modena, AstraZeneca are all out, why are they still falling? Because the market is approaching approval, but why take precautions? If there are any political problems in the United States, gold will be disturbed by a greater force in the short term—that is, changes in political power. There is nothing higher than political interests in this world.
Including my previous analysis of the damage to American corn, the later superposition of unlucky demand for Chinese corn led to two waves of rising US corn, and the profits were very considerable. This is not based on other analysis, but it is so obvious that the corn in the crop corridor in the south-central United States is lying in the ground, a very obvious supply and demand transaction.
How do we operate on trends? When the trend comes, it should be constantly rising or falling. At this time, just ignore the adjustment and follow the momentum. In the middle, you can close the position according to the adjustment range or the expected weakening. This does not need to be difficult. Ordinary technicians can do it It is even easier for those who can achieve stable profits through technical aspects. What have I been lacking in the technical field? It is the determination of the direction and the affirmation of the subsequent rise and fall. Even if the market is not beautiful on the K-line, as long as the overall direction remains unchanged, you can make money. It is actually very simple, but mastering analysis is actually very difficult.
Where is the difficulty? The reason is that you have to know the variety very well. If you are doing futures, you have to know as much as you have your own company in the entire industrial chain. Then you already know a little bit of the secrets of this variety, and the rest is The understanding of national interests, the handling of emergencies, and the consideration of geopolitical issues for varieties that need to consider geopolitical issues. These studies are what I do every day.
The purpose of writing this article is not to persuade everyone not to study technical aspects. Technology must be learned. It has its own advantages in specific operations, but it must also be clear that technology is not a panacea, it is only a matter of operation.
I have seen many traders who are confused, and many people are looking for breakthroughs before they can't achieve stable profits, but why don't many people only make horizontal breakthroughs in one level or one dimension? Thinking must be changed first in order to have a vertical breakthrough.
In addition, readers who have read my answer know that I often give one piece of advice to novices-put down the firm offer and read books first. Many people do not know that they have no knowledge, but they start to operate after receiving many so-called easy-to-read books or experience posts. This is very dangerous. The trading industry gathers either top geniuses or people who can endure hardships. These people have to spend more than ten hours every day. What if they are easily surpassed by a book or an experience post?
In addition, I hope that many novice readers understand that the profit of a transaction is not a manifestation of ability. For those who dare to gamble or see the trend clearly, they will get a good profit in a transaction, but the most important It is to be an evergreen tree among investors, not to be surprised at a glance. Pay attention to this point.
The last sentence, read more and learn more, knowledge will not deceive you, but it will not help you much. What really works is to change your thinking to guide and connect these knowledge in the correct way. It's not blindfolded innovation.
Kim Seung Ho
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