First of all, thank you very much for your attention and support all the time!
It took a long time this time, because something happened to my body, but fortunately it was a false alarm, and I needed psychotropic drugs to calm me down! Once again, I would like to warn those friends who are equally paranoid and hardworking about trading, to arrange their own study, trading and life reasonably!
Today’s discussion of my three extreme thinking is based entirely on the three issues of the trading system I released before. It can be said that after thinking about these three issues, I am entering the process of my personal trading system! Before the full introduction, let me reiterate that what I share is based on personal exploration and actual experience. I am very happy to learn from friends who trade online or who can help. If there are any bad or unclear expressions, please let me know. Friends, please bear with me, don't spray if you don't like it!
The above is the system I personally shared before. One risk control, two indicators, and three cycles. I just call it "ⅠⅡⅢ system" which is easier to remember and helps to remind myself of several key elements! I will not repeat the details of the system here. Interested friends can check all my sharing articles in the circle I established (grassroots ten-year trading history), including "How is the trading system refined?".
It can be seen from the trading system that my long-term and swing trading are all without stop loss, and I also set up matching without leverage and 2 times leverage accordingly, and short-term trading with 3 times leverage is matched with stop loss; why? There will be such considerations, which are completely caused by the problems encountered in the trading reality! Here I will try my best to introduce in a comprehensive and detailed manner how the three problems above my personal trading system are derived!
How My Three Limits Thinking Was Born...
Like most novices, a person like me who walks on the road of trading has no background, no formal channels, and can only do things together to find things to learn. As long as it is about trading, just take it for a look; in the first year or two when I started learning trading, I slowly began to understand a problem. Regardless of whether it is a strategy or a strategy, you must have a certain ability to execute it, otherwise how can you show the level of the transaction and the quality of the level! At least one thing, no matter what strategy or technique you use, it is not a huge profit. If so, someone would have invented the perpetual motion machine (EA trading); so don't have that kind of unrealistic idea.
But there are exceptions to everything. The people at the top of the game are both the makers of the rules of the game and the participants of the game. It’s like a game of cat and mouse. No matter how hard you try, you can’t escape the cat’s claws. No tricks are allowed here! Therefore, in my later study, I deliberately did not spend a lot of time on technical analysis. I just paid attention to the fundamentals, and at the same time, the technical aspects were almost five-five-six-six. After empirical analysis and judgment are ruled out, the outcome will be determined by the trend. Even if the result of the outcome comes out, I will not pursue the cause too much! In this way, I slowly began to ask myself, since trading is said to be miraculous by most people, the market is always right, and don’t go against the market trend, but most people will say, but if you delve deeper into the problems, including me I don't understand it very well; I know the market is not as people say, the market is unpredictable, the market is not pure like nature and disordered, nor is it pure like the weather and unpredictable , on the contrary, it is like a pre-agreed game, but you are too small in it, so small that a group of mysterious and powerful people who are beyond your imagination can't find you. I just knew that there were loopholes in it, but I couldn't express it. Soon, once in the Lianbanwai Book City in Xiamen, an idle person like me had nothing, just had time, so I just wandered in and walked to the financial center. After all, I can't understand the classification of other places in the area. There is a book with four big characters like "Zero-sum Game", and the book cover is red; it seems that I saw it on this book! After flipping through a few pages, I discovered these three limit problems, and they gradually became part of my transaction in the future!
One of my three extreme thinking: If you are strong enough to influence or even control the market, then you will be invincible in the market!
When I saw this sentence, I didn't feel it at first; after all, I only entered the industry for two or three years, and then I read a book "The Federal Reserve", my dear; I watched a documentary later, and I watched it repeatedly, called "Wall Street "; What started from Needlework Street, and what started from the Renaissance, etc. Now as long as these names are mentioned, my head can hear the introduction voice behind the scene of the film like a movie; slowly I began to seem I understand a little more, and I am more certain that the market is not a pure market, at least not much cleaner than the domestic A-shares. On the contrary, the dirtiness of the domestic A-shares is not an order of magnitude compared with the foreign exchange market, because If the order of magnitude is too large, you will appear to be very small, so small that you have no right to argue, and A shares can still have something to say! Let me surprise! Speaking of this, Laohui people should be clear that every target in the transaction corresponds to every country, and each country is the banker of this target, and the person who executes it is the central bank or investment bank, and the speeches of those important leaders are actually There are vested interests behind it! Whether it's 911 or the Iraq War...it's just that we, ants-like meat, will never be the main course on the table of these giant beasts!
Therefore, regarding this extreme topic, so far I have not been able to extract any ideas that are helpful for my own trading, because these giants are fighting, and the market changes are often changing rapidly. Before you can react, the main force of the market may have long been the other side up! In this era of the US dollar, some are just conforming; but it is not completely without loopholes, just like every time the market encounters a huge force majeure factor, it can still take advantage of the trend and eat a piece of monsters (various countries and consortiums) caused by fierce robbing. Meat that fell from the table due to a brief shake of the table (market)! But this short shaking doesn't happen very often, because they don't like the table (market) shaking too often! For example, the force majeure of the new crown or the systemic financial risk will be the incentives, and the behemoths will not be able to erode the market calmly!
Therefore, this limit has taught me not to easily try to imagine sharing the meat on the table with the giants, because I am not worthy; some just wait patiently, waiting for the next time they compete or encounter force majeure factors, the table shakes and falls off the meat , quickly grab a little bit and run, you can't keep grabbing! If you grab too much, you are afraid that the giant beast will bend over and find out that you will be out of breath if you are crushed, and you will be sent directly to the ICU or even sent away! Well, about this limit, you can experience it yourself....!
Summary: Since we are doomed not to be giants (country, central bank, consortia or investment banks), standing at the top of the food chain or game, then hide well, hide well, and wait patiently for every snatch of giant beasts (monetary policy or financial system) risk) or in the event of an accident (force majeure factor), the table starts to shake, and we can quickly grab the food that belongs to us. (Shoot when shaking), don't pick too big (position), just suit yourself!
The second of my three extreme thinking: If you can complete a transaction in a very short period of time, you can also remain invincible!
Regarding the second limit, at first I felt the same as the first question. I was at a loss without much experience and experience; until later, I gradually came into contact with more things, and what I saw and heard There are many, and slowly began to form their own answers! It turns out that in this market, apart from the top-level monsters (country, central bank, and consortium), there are also a group of forces that are free from the rules and are indispensable; these forces are huge liquidity providers. Participating in the ups and downs of the market, some just provide huge trading volume, no matter how long or short, what you earn is only a small price difference negotiated with the bank; In front of the turnover of the unit, it is really like a thousand-year-old vampire, don't worry, because the market has a steady supply of blood! It is precisely because of the liquidity provider that the cost of our transactions in the market is getting lower and lower, and the trading experience is getting better and better! Regarding the liquidity provider, in addition to the role of the bank, there is also an artificial intelligence trading team specializing in high-frequency trading. There is not much information about this aspect, and it seems to be introduced in the documentary "Million Traders"! If you are interested, you can go and have a look!
Here comes the problem, even in the face of this kind of strength, there are still a group of ruthless characters like werewolves appearing. These ruthless characters are high-frequency traders and smart EAs. Thoughts, but the blood drawn is from the market and brokers! Therefore, many brokers have clearly stipulated in recent years that the platform belongs to MM (market maker), and all transactions must be more than one minute or more than three minutes, and those below this time are illegal operations! This kind of scalping technique is most typical in the US stock market. US stock traders can complete a transaction with almost no risk by virtue of negligible cost and even the path of channel discount interest plus small market fluctuations. However, These skills require special training and countless attempts, and in the end, like a sniper, it is almost a hundred shots! Although they are not like liquidity providers, they can be regarded as taking the initiative in the market; over time, the market seems to be reluctant to have these people, because they are not members of the system, and they do not have that ticket. It seems that they have been given the qualification to share the fruits. Therefore, the US stock market also has a tendency to increase costs, which makes it more and more difficult for short-term sniper stragglers to survive!
Fortunately, the small level of volatility in the foreign exchange market still provides a battlefield for talented fast players, including stock indexes, and even the domestic futures market, can rely on this superb short-term technology to complete sniping, but it is not just about physical strength and skills The contest is more a contest between oneself and one's own heart! At present, this kind of extreme thinking has gradually evolved into a lot of intraday ultra-short-term transactions. This kind of judgment is not a trend, but more of a grasp of the small amplitude rhythm of the intraday market. Every minute and every second is a test of the control of psychological fluctuations. , so those who can survive in this limit can be regarded as a ninja! Has a lonely but sensitive heart!
Summary: This extreme thinking is currently the purpose of short-term intraday thinking in my system, but I currently have neither such talent and ability nor such physical strength and perseverance to conquer this battlefield. I just use this method to complete short-term intraday trading , Even if there is no market within the day, the trading method of this idea has become a fixed part of the source of income within the day!
The third of my three extreme thinking: If you have enough wealth, you can also be invincible!
Speaking of this limit, many people may say that it is all nonsense, it is indeed the case, and my first feeling is also true; there is no absolute in everything, it is just this sentence, which has become a key point that overrides the risk control of my later trading system. The only risk indicator on the Internet can be said to be my risk control system, and the highest risk indicator is this purpose!
Now, allow me to slowly split my understanding of this sentence; many things are relative, high and low, big and small, more and less; if you have enough net worth, your account will never be liquidated, After writing this, some people probably know that this limit is actually about position management; if you have enough net worth to cover the maximum amplitude of your market, does it mean that you have enough wealth! For example, if you have 10,000 US dollars, you can operate many targets at this time. If the target you are operating is EURUSD, a standard point is 10 US dollars, and you open a position, then you can theoretically carry 1,000 points. If Open a position with 0.1 lot, theoretically you can bear the amplitude of 10000 points! However, human nature is often not satisfied with this. For 10,000 US dollars, if you make 0.1 lot, if you are really trapped in it for a few thousand points, even if you don’t lose money, when will you be able to get out of the trap in the end? If the direction is negative interest rates, a lot of interest rates will be posted. What I want to say is: After writing here, everyone can study the price difference between all historical highs and lows of currencies in various countries, as well as the ratio of current points to high and low points. , this is also the limit test part of my current system risk control calculation table. At this time, the chances of winning have increased a lot...; I hope this idea can broaden the thinking of some friends; interested friends can follow This idea finds some ways to improve trading performance, so I won’t dig too deep. Everyone has different ideas; if you just want to read a story or want to find a ready-made idea, don’t research and explore by yourself. Then my sharing is of little significance to these friends! I have to break the fantasy of some friends here. Trading is a serious and rigorous job. If you are eager for quick success and always pursue a monthly profit of dozens of percentage points, or even a few months or a month. All sharing is just water! For friends with such expectations, there is basically nothing to learn from here!
It is precisely because of this limit that I was spared from being killed when crude oil plummeted not long ago. I was also a member of the bottom-manager army. When the price was only eleven or twelve dollars, I entered the market. The position I opened was crude oil spot , the price fell to 0; because the futures contract is ten times larger than the spot contract, my basic account cannot meet the risk requirements. If I make a crude oil futures contract, then my documentary account is also terrible; on the premise of extreme risk control Next, calculate the position. My basic account is only enough to establish a spot crude oil position. In the end, all of them are settled. My loss is only a little over ten percent! It is precisely because of this incident that I have seen the bloody market, and confirmed a sentence, there is no absolute in everything!
Therefore, in my trading in the next few years, I was not too obsessed with trading techniques, and only used MACD, SO, the simple shape of the K line and a 5-day moving average! The strategy is also mostly designed to control risks. Even I seldom study the trend, and often do some hedging of exaggerated varieties, without research on structure and form! It's more just to read the news every day, especially the far-reaching ones, not the sudden news! Or about monetary policy in different regions! Finally, I want to say that after sharing so many biased articles, it is inevitable that some friends will say, if you look so powerful, can you share your account and watch it; I want to say that I don’t have superb trading skills, most of the time It's all about improving one's risk management ability, so it is destined that a trader of my type will not have that kind of shocking scene and gratifying results, barely lingering in the market, leaving a glimmer of life! Trading is not everything to me. Life and family are everything to me. Trading is just a hobby, but it just became a career by accident. According to the risk control settings of my system, there is no leverage in the long-term, 2 times in the swing band, and 3 times in the short-term with a stop loss. Enough to beat most financial products on the market! Of course, you still have to consider the time cost, but even if you consider the time cost, this kind of risk control setting is enough to use, novices should not be impatient, leverage is a two-sided knife, reducing unrealistic expectations in the heart can not only harvest unexpected things The effect can also save lives in times of danger!
Summary: Although the first limit is doomed for us not to be lucky enough to participate, we can adapt to it and don’t rush for quick success; the second limit is that there is still room for the market. Warriors who are passionate about trading can hone themselves and reserve One's own energy and physical fitness, go to the battlefield to fight heartily and smartly, and many people can be achieved here; the third limit, my personal understanding, is the original intention of deciding whether to survive in the market for a long time. , that can also allow yourself to get long-term peace!
Finally, I would like to send a word to Huiyou: It is very important to be happy every day! Wish you happy trading and smooth trading!
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