The writer Gladwell pointed out in the book "Outliers": "The reason why geniuses in people's eyes are extraordinary is not because they are superior in talent, but because they have made continuous efforts. 10,000 hours of tempering are the key to anyone changing from ordinary to extraordinary." A necessary condition for becoming extraordinary".
10,000 hours, if you work 8 hours a day and 5 days a week, it will take at least five years to become an expert in a field. I can't help wondering about this, those old stock investors and old investors who have been in the financial market for a long time must have traded for far more than 10,000 hours, so why didn't they become experts in the field? Why do the more you know, the more you trade, the less you expect?
①Many but not refined
A piece of white paper can be swayed freely, but if there are many traces, it is not easy to carve. When financial companies recruit traders, fresh graduates usually have an advantage over veteran traders who have been in the industry for several years. Why? Because they will not be affected by the knowledge they have learned before, and they will not be disturbed by the previous knowledge system before their thinking is fixed, and it is easier to receive specific knowledge.
Traders are the hardest working crowd. From the Dow Theory to the Gann Theory; from naked K to the moving average; from the system default indicators to the development of their own indicators, etc., it can be said that most people's trading tracks come from this way.
Being "called" by wealth, I keep learning new trading techniques. As long as the old technique cannot make me profitable, I will give up decisively and turn to the embrace of another technique. Repeatedly, never tired of it...
I know many technical analysis methods, but none of the technical methods is studied in depth, and I don't insist on using one method. Knowing a lot but not deep, so the operation is deep in the quagmire. Such traders cannot make stable profits even if they borrow another ten years from the sky.
② Lack of deep thinking
Trading is for profit, it is a simple purpose. But for this simple purpose, the effort required is not simple. From the first financial transaction on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange in the Netherlands in 1609 to the booming financial market today, the transaction has matured after four centuries. From the simplest trading at the beginning to the current quantitative trading model, value investment model, hedging trading model, arbitrage trading (cross-species arbitrage, cross-market arbitrage), etc., the purpose of trading has not changed, but the trading skills have been changing. . Traders, in order to earn the difference, have systematically updated their transactions.
When we were still struggling with manual trading, someone had already started programmatic trading. More trading models will appear in the future, all of which are the result of in-depth thinking.
If you choose to use the technical analysis method of indicators to assist your own transactions, then you will not only stay on the surface of the indicators, but also need to decompose the indicators in a way that solves problems, and think deeply about the effects of the indicators. If I study indicators, my general analytical thinking process is like this.
A. What is the moving average indicator?
B. What is the formula for calculating the moving average indicator? Are there quantitative or variable factors in the formula, and if so, which factors are quantitative and which factors are variable?
C. What are the factors that lead to the indicator variable? Does the indicator include a large number of future factors?
D. What is the conventional usage of the moving average? What is the special usage of moving average?
E. Under what circumstances, the effect of using the moving average is better, and why such a result occurs. The cooperation of time or space? Is it a magical coincidence or a historical necessity?
F. When the indicator shows a wrong signal, can the signal be avoided? What kind of signal is a wrong signal, as opposed to a correct signal? Are there any new situations?
G. Can the price behavior be fully reflected by the indicators?
...etc
To think, you must have the awareness to break the casserole and ask the end.
③ go with the flow, attributed to fate
A transaction with many people is a Buddhist transaction. It seems that I don’t care about the result every day, but I care about the loss of the account. The point is that after the calculation, there is nothing to follow.
Watching the news---analyzing the market---trading---holding positions---closing positions... When the result is good, the heart is full of joy, but when the result is not good, the face is full of sadness. After one night, continue to maintain the previous fixed trading mode.
This type of traders has always believed in the saying: "Life and death are fate, wealth and honor are in the sky." In fact, they are also working very hard to make the transaction better, but they are just content with the status quo. When there is a problem, the first thing to consider is not to solve the problem, but to wait for the price to enter its own profit cycle. If there is a loss, it will not look for the cause of the loss, but completely attribute the loss factor to the probability.
The trading market is a probability market, which is not bad at all. But it is always necessary to find the reason for profit or loss, and the trading model at this time is very important.
How can we better solve this problem?
First of all, try to establish your own rhythm and build a trading system that suits you.
That's right, it's another commonplace trading system, because this point is so important, it can be said that without a trading system, trading can only be short-lived and difficult to last.
The establishment principles of the trading system: First, it must be suitable for oneself. Among the many analysis ideas, find a trading rhythm that suits you, and you don't need to be greedy. Master moves, pay attention to one trick to attract the enemy. You just need to study your trading techniques thoroughly. The second is to conform to the market. The market is random, but there are regularities. To find the pulse of the market, you don't need to cover everything, just eat the part of the profit you can eat. The third is that the trading system must be positive. The purpose of trading is to make money, nothing more. The fourth is to use it persistently for a long time. If it fits, keep using it.
Second, try to think deeply and find your own crux.
How to find the essence of market fluctuations as much as possible, maybe Sakichi Toyoda's 5why analysis method can be tried.
Step 1. Identify the problem
Preliminary identification of why your account lost money? Where are the losses generally concentrated (variety of frequent losses, time period of losses)
Step 2. Break down the problem
What kind of movement actually happened during the generation of the trading signal? What kind of trend should we go out of? Why is the market going this way?
Step 3. Cause analysis
Why does MACD divergence fail? What is the reason for the deviation from the time of success? What is the reason for the failure? Is there a commonality between success and failure, and is there a personality?
Step 4. How to fix the problem
Find the reason and solve the problem oriented.
Step 5. How to Promote
Individuality or commonality? Can this situation be applied to other trading varieties, and the next time such a situation occurs, can we continue to operate at the current pace?
Finally, the reflection summary, I reflect on myself three times a day.
If the problems in the transaction cannot be solved, then you will definitely encounter them next time. Even if you don’t go to solve them, the problems will still be there and will not disappear by yourself because of your “neglect”. The process of reflection is actually a process of thinking.
Trading, try to build your own summary model. When a transaction is completed, it must not be kept at a respectful distance, but the market needs to be reproduced from the perspective of God. Reflect on why you made such a trading decision in the first place, whether there is room for improvement in this decision, and so on. This needs to be implemented in practice, establish your own transaction plan and error correction table, and summarize the transaction status. If you can't find the "cause" of the deductive method, try to find the law under the inductive method.
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