Transactions should be simple, and painstaking effort should not be the right answer. Here is a simple lazy trading method, which is very common, but it took some thought to figure it out.
First select a period and select a moving average. The cycle depends on personal preference. The moving average is a little more particular, just compare the ones commonly used in the market and choose one.
rule:
Only do long online, only short offline. There are only two positions for opening a position. One is when the price is valid and confirmed to break through the moving average, and the other is when the price returns to the moving average, and it is generally believed that it will not effectively break through the moving average.
illustrate:
1. The moving average is only a summary form of prices, not the best way to understand price fluctuations, but it is simple and has a good auxiliary effect.
2. Use only one moving average, never use multiple ones, and don't fight for two rabbits. (The essence of the golden cross is that the price is on the line, so why bother to look at the golden cross again, why bother to have more moving averages).
3. Assume that the selected moving average has a winning rate of more than 55%. This article may be very controversial, but I don't want to debate or explain it, it's just actual combat experience. (The moving average is selected from 1----1000 and tried one by one, there must be a good one)
Fourth, the position of opening a position is very important, relying on the position of the moving average, effectively breaking the moving average and stopping loss, the cost is very small. A good opening position can increase the winning rate by 10%.
Five, the most important point. Take long as an example, only consider long on the moving average, never short. The reason is as follows
1. Concise and easy. If there is no good long position on the moving average, relax.
2. Since there is more than 55% chance of winning along the moving average, then there is a 55% chance of losing if you go against the moving average.
3. There is no theoretical support for inverse moving averages, no theoretical support for opening positions, and no reference for stop loss positions.
4. Make a volatility statistics along the moving average and against the moving average, the advantages and disadvantages are self-evident.
5. Any reverse action is greed and irresistible temptation, which is the cause of failure. The market will never lack opportunities, and removing the cause of failure will plug the loopholes.
Question: 1. Is there such a moving average? Can multiple moving averages be used? (Try yourself for comparison)
2. The price moves around the moving average V, what should I do if it looks like a mutton skewer (use the support pressure interval method to solve it)
3. What should I do if I can’t see clearly the opening position and hesitate? (more actual combat experience)
4. What should I do if I miss the opening position? (cold salad)
Finally: the moving average comes first with the price, so the moving average can only be used as an aid and reference, but the moving average is a simplification of the price and has a strong guiding significance. Only using the moving average can only do it smoothly. But it is not impossible to reverse, that is another way to look at price fluctuations.
Finally: In fact, there is only one point in the whole text. If you use the moving average, you can only do it along the way and never against it.
Add
