What fundamental macro data should be paid attention to in gold investment?
China: GDP, CPI (consumer price index), manufacturing PMI, annual rate of urban fixed asset investment, annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods, annual rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size...
Eurozone: GDP, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Economic Sentiment Index, Industrial Sentiment Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index...
U.S. data: Federal funds rate target upper limit, non-agricultural, core PCE price index, ISM manufacturing PMI, personal spending monthly rate, seasonally adjusted monthly rate of existing home sales index monthly rate, July Conference Board consumer confidence index, University of Michigan consumption Investor confidence index, JOLTs job vacancies, current account, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, the monthly rate of durable goods orders...
The gold market mainly depends on the following data from the United States:
Non-agricultural: U.S. non-agricultural population employment data, published on the first Friday of each month (winter time: November-March) 21:30 Beijing time, (summer time: April-October) 20:00 30.
ADP employment data: small non-agricultural employment data is an advance forecast of the non-agricultural employment population in the United States. The release time is: Beijing time on the first Wednesday of each month (winter time: November-March) 21:15, (daylight saving time : April-October) 20:15.
Core PCE Price Index: A key indicator of U.S. private consumer inflation. In January 2012, the Federal Reserve set the core PCE annual rate increase of 2% as the long-term inflation target. If the core PCE annual rate increase exceeds 2%, the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy, which is good for the dollar and bad for gold.
How do you see whether the impact of macro data on gold is negative or positive?
From the perspective of the global financial market, currently gold, crude oil, and currencies such as the euro and the renminbi, generally stand against the US dollar:
You rise and I fall, you fall and I rise
In view of the current strong financial market influence of the United States, macro data can be generally divided into two categories for the time being: US data and non-US data (China, Eurozone, UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc.)
U.S. data: better than expected, bullish for dollar, bearish for gold and silver; worse than expected, bullish for gold and silver, bearish for dollar
Non-US data: better than expected, generally bullish for gold and silver, bearish for the dollar; worse than expected, bullish for the dollar, bearish for gold and silver
What transaction data should be paid attention to in gold investment?
Central banks' gold positions, ETF gold positions, Comex gold futures market net long/net short positions, global gold trading volume, gold three-month options skew, EIA crude oil inventory data...
What are the positive factors in the current gold market?
Trade disputes, geopolitical risks, US stock market crash risk, central banks buying gold, low interest rates, rising risk of global recession, rising credit risk
What events should be paid attention to in gold investment?
Trump's speech, Sino-US trade progress, Fed interest rate resolution, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, speeches of Federal Reserve presidents, British Prime Minister Johnson's speech, actions of the Bank of England, actions of the Bundesbank, actions of the Bank of France...
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