Let me talk about some important things first, which are related to the direction of future study.
Trading is not just about forecasting ups and downs. Those who only rely on forecasting ups and downs for a long time to trade will lose money unless they are lucky enough to make a profit. Trading solely on technical analysis is no different from gambling. Technical analysis can only predict the future price trend through the previous price. No matter how beautiful the previous price is, the future trend may not necessarily go as we think. Therefore, I personally think that technical analysis only accounts for one-tenth of the entire trading process, and the rest is six-tenths of position management and three-tenths of luck. Although technical analysis does not account for much, it is the first in the transaction The first step is also the most difficult step, so we must pay attention to the learning of analysis techniques, but we should not believe too much in the results of the analysis. Since we cannot fully believe in the results of the analysis, we can only reduce the losses and losses caused by analysis errors through position management. Increase the profit after the analysis is correct, which is why position management accounts for such a large proportion. Of course, there is also luck. I think as long as there is no luck of drinking water and stuffing your teeth, you can make stable profits only by relying on technical analysis and position management.
I personally think that technical analysis is divided into two parts, news analysis and technical analysis. Let me talk about fundamental analysis first. Individuals are not capable of analyzing long-term trends through fundamentals. There may be some good people who can analyze them, but I have never encountered them. What individuals can do is to avoid the release time of important data and set a stop loss when trading, and to reduce the total position to prevent our misjudgment of data and losses due to irresistible events, such as black swans, platform running road wait...
Analyzing the news, market behavior is inclusive of all news. This sentence is said by long-term trend traders. It is not applicable to intraday traders. Do not play any layout before the data is released. How much is the difference between the data and the expectation? If it is good for a certain currency and the gap is too large, then judge whether to go long or short according to the current price rise and fall. Regardless of whether the price is high or short, it will follow the technical form, so don’t worry about wrong judgments. The market Will give the opportunity to remedy. To put it simply, for example, the price will reverse at this pressure level. Due to the influence of the news, this pressure level has been broken through. At this time, you should not hesitate, stop the loss decisively, and continue to place orders in the direction of the breakthrough after the price stabilizes. Irresistible orders, or locked positions. When the price reaches the next pressure level, it is better to make a backhand order first and use position management to save capital first, and then consider locking in profits. It is not possible to subjectively judge that the price will definitely reverse. I personally think that the news side should be operated in conjunction with the technical side. The understanding of the news side is limited to a limited level. If there is something wrong, please leave a message to correct me.
Analyzing the technical aspect, I personally feel that the technical aspect is very important, because the technical aspect is closer to the market and is more important to intraday traders. Technical analysis is not as simple as simply using trend lines and various indicators. These are just technical analysis tools, just like a farmer’s farming. If you only have farm tools and seeds, it’s useless if you don’t know how to grow them. Therefore, the theory is very important. With theoretical support, these tools are meaningful to use. The following is my personal understanding of the theory.
Theorem 1, non-human maneuverability.
The market is divided into major trends, minor trends, and intraday clutter. The main reason is that the trend is difficult to be considered to be manipulated, the secondary trend may be artificially affected by a small period, and the intraday clutter is likely to be artificially affected. The market is nothing more than a combination of natural laws and human manipulation. Traders need to distinguish which part is the natural trend and which part is the artificial trend before they can formulate trading strategies.
Theorem 2, market efficiency theorem.
To put it simply, the market is always right. The market fully reflects the current economic situation and public psychology. Even in the event of an irresistible event, the market can respond quickly. Any data and news only represent the past, and transactions should still be based on the market, one step at a time.
Theorem three, the flaw of the theory.
There is no perfect trading method in the world, and any investment is risky. What we do is to know how much money we can expect to make and how much we can lose by doing this transaction, and what is the expected success rate of this transaction . We must understand where our existing trading methods are flawed. When we use our own trading methods to analyze the market, we should be clear about what we should do if the analysis is right and what we should do if the analysis is wrong.
Theorem 4: Classification of market price fluctuations
The market is divided into major general directions, minor callbacks, and intraday clutter. The main general direction is very important, and it lasts for a long time, so it cannot be manipulated. Secondary callbacks are characterized by strong deception, duration, and the possibility of being manipulated. Intraday clutter is irregular. Intraday traders need to know whether the current price is in the main general direction or the secondary correction direction, and make specific operations according to the specific position of the price. Trading is not simply a matter of buying and selling. It requires continuous increase and decrease of positions in the middle, and the most important stop loss.
Theorem five, trend judgment
You can only judge whether the past trend is rising or falling, and then see whether the current price is in a general trend or a callback trend. It is impossible to accurately predict where the general trend will go or when the callback trend will end. It can only be guessed through technical analysis. Note that it is just speculation, and trading can only be carried out by guessing the critical point of the general trend and the callback trend, which requires candle line patterns and graphic patterns to help judge. If you guessed right, keep increasing your position. It doesn’t matter if you guess wrong, because many people in important positions will guess that there will be a reversal, so the price will turn around for a while, try to lose money or not lose money through position management, and then follow up again. The general trend or the callback trend is going, don’t worry about whether the price will pull back after going so far, just follow the price, and the stop loss will follow the current price. Or stop loss, stop loss is very important
The Dow Theory tells us what a trend is, and the Wave Theory tells us how a trend is formed, of course the past trend.
The basic theory is that the price always follows the principle of five waves rising and three waves falling.
The main rising wave, wave 2 does not exceed the starting point of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 cannot enter the highest point of wave 1.
Pullback wave, A wave pushes, B wave pulls back, C wave pushes.
Extended waves, extended waves can occur in all impulsive waves in the wave. Many people do not understand waves, but they ignore extended waves.
It is best to read the book for the specific theory. My writing ability is limited, and I don’t know how to explain the wave theory better. Anyway, the theory is just to judge the past trend, judge the current price in which wave, and then Trade according to the direction of the current wave, and the waves with a small period must obey the waves with a large period. When a wave comes out, use tools such as the golden section trend line to guess the end point of the second wave. When the second wave ends, use the golden section and trend line of a larger time period to guess the end point of the third wave. After the third wave ends, pass The golden section trendline guesses the end point of the fourth wave, and so on. It is still a guess, so good position management and effective stop loss are the first principles of successful trading
Theoretical summary: Simply put, the trend is divided into the initial stage, the vigorous stage, and the crazy stage. Orders can be done at the beginning stage and the force stage. In the crazy stage, you can’t follow the trend trading. You need to find opportunities to do the beginning stage of a new round of trends. This new round of trends may not necessarily be a reversal, but may also continue the previous one. trend.
Trading system: technical analysis + position management
The first step of technical analysis is to see what stage the market is in the trend from the big cycle chart, and then analyze the trading direction, trading space, resistance and support positions from the hourly chart. Then wait for the price to reach the pressure level, and then you can judge whether to enter the market according to the candle chart pattern and graphic pattern.
The second step is position management, technical analysis is to guess the future trend based on the previous trend. When the guess will be wrong, the rise and fall of the price cannot be judged subjectively. What I can control is my own position, how to divide the position, how to increase or decrease the position, and how to stop the profit and stop the loss, which is the key to the success of the transaction. When the price reaches the trading position and there is a reversal pattern, it cannot be regarded as a real reversal, but the price is only a rebound this time, because once the trend is formed, it is not easy to change, the reversal is difficult, and the chance of a rebound is greater . Then judge whether to reverse according to the magnitude of the rebound. Orders are placed according to one-tenth of the total position, such as one lot, 0.3 0.3 0.4 three orders enter the market respectively, the original stop loss of the three orders remains unchanged, two 0.3 stop profits are manually operated, and then 0.4 is set to protect the capital and stop loss, the price Do not sweep 0.4 in the callback, look at the shape and enter the market with two 0.3, place the stop loss outside the shape to make a point difference, move the 0.4 stop loss to the position of the two 0.3 stop loss at this time, wait for the manual take profit of two 0.3, 0.4 again Set a breakeven stop loss, do not sweep 0.4 when the price pulls back, and continue to wait for two 0.3 to enter the market. Repeat the previous step. The ability to write is limited, and the trading system can only say this.
Mentality problem: Many people say that mentality is very important, but this sentence is nonsense in the truth. There are also many salesmen who say that novices need to deposit money first to exercise their mentality, and then they can stabilize their profits slowly. Virtual is useless... I just want to ask, what kind of mentality should be exercised? When a novice knows nothing about trading and loses money steadily when making orders, how can he have a mentality. A good attitude is actually a calm transaction, using the thinking of a third party to trade. It is difficult to do just a few simple sentences. You need to develop good trading habits to make long-term and stable profits. Naturally, you will become more and more confident in your transactions, and you will have confidence in your own transactions, and your mentality will follow. Therefore, the importance of learning technical analysis and position management from virtual trading is self-evident.
The above remarks are purely my own summary, and the writing is very rough. If there is any problem, I hope to correct it, thank you!
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