AUD/USD technical analysis (4-hour chart):- warren

AUD/USD technical analysis (4-hour chart):

Warren's Trading Titans

warren

Given the recent strong performance of AUD/USD leading up to today's meeting, the question arises as to whether the expected 25 basis point interest rate increase has already been factored into the exchange rate. This raises the possibility of a downward movement in AUD/USD if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) simply implements the anticipated rate hike without indicating a more aggressive stance towards further hikes.

On Monday, the currency pair encountered resistance at the same level it reached in September, forming a potential double top pattern, and this resistance coincided with the monthly R2 pivot point. This level is significant for bullish traders, and as prices retreat, there may be a continued pullback as they attempt to fill the 'liquidity gap' created during the strong rally.

In the event that the RBA mishandles the meeting, a decline to 0.6430 appears likely, as there is a high-volume region (which can act as a price magnet) near the monthly R1 pivot point. Breaking below this level could bring 0.6400 into focus.

If the RBA opts for a rate hike, it could push AUD/USD back towards its recent peak, but a sustained break above that level may necessitate a more hawkish stance regarding future rate hikes.

Last updated: 11/07/2023 06:26

Stay in touch!