Futures, as a financial derivative product, has developed so far. Although the population base of participants is not as large as that of stocks, it has developed rapidly in recent years and has intersected with multiple derivatives markets, becoming the main force in the financial market. The variety of varieties in futures also causes headaches for many novices.
In terms of categories, futures are divided into commodity futures and financial futures. The specific division is already in the figure below.
In the international futures market, financial futures have surpassed commodity futures since the 1980s (1980) and have occupied a dominant position until now. Of course, due to the recent start of domestic futures, the variety of financial futures is not complete, so commodity futures are still the main ones.
Due to the wide variety of futures, it would be too long to introduce them one by one, so choose from the popular ones first, and then have the opportunity to introduce other futures in a separate article.
(1) Soybean
China is the origin of soybeans. In the 1930s, the cultivation of soybeans has spread all over the world. Global soybeans are divided into two harvest periods in the northern and southern hemispheres. The harvest period of soybeans in South America (Brazil and Argentina) is March-May each year, while The soybean harvest period in the United States and China in the northern hemisphere is from September to October. Therefore, every 6 months, soybeans can be supplied intensively.
Among them, the United States is the largest producer of soybeans. There are 29 states that grow soybeans, accounting for about 50% of the world's total production. It is the second largest agricultural crop in the United States. About half of that production is sold overseas. The soybean production of Brazil, Argentina, and China ranks 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the world. All soybeans planted in China are non-GMO soybeans, while soybeans in North and South America are mainly genetically modified soybeans.
Changes in soybean production in the United States have a greater impact on the world soybean market. my country is one of the largest importers in the international soybean market. The import volume and price of genetically modified soybeans directly affect the domestic soybean supply market, thereby affecting the price of non-transgenic soybeans. Therefore, the import volume and price of soybeans have a great influence on the price of soybeans in the domestic market.
Food consumption of soybeans is relatively stable and has a weak impact on prices. After soybean crushing, the market demand for soybean oil and soybean meal products fluctuates, and there are many influencing factors. The crushing demand of soybeans changes greatly, which has a great impact on the price.
As food, soybean substitutes include peas, mung beans, kidney beans, etc.; as oilseeds, soybean substitutes include palm fruit, rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflower seeds, peanuts, etc. Changes in the production, price, and consumption of these substitutes also have an indirect impact on soybean prices.
The price of soybeans is directly related to its subsequent products, soybean oil and soybean meal. Changes in the demand for these two products will directly lead to changes in the demand for soybeans, thereby affecting the price of non-transgenic soybeans.
Transportation costs have a significant impact on soybean prices. In the case that imported soybeans account for more than 80% of the total domestic consumption, the international shipping price, which directly affects the price of imported soybeans, will directly affect the price of domestic soybeans. At the same time, the shortage of domestic regional transportation capacity will also drive up the transportation cost and indirectly stimulate the rise of soybean prices. Therefore, factors such as tight shipping capacity and crude oil prices related to freight have become indirect factors affecting the price of soybeans.
Bean-related sites:
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: www.fao.org
United States Department of Agriculture: www.usda.gov
American Soybean Association: www.soygrowers.com
CME Group: www.cmegroup.com
China Agricultural Information Network: www.agri.gov.cn
National Bureau of Statistics of China: www.stats.gov.cn
China Vegetable Oil Industry Association: www.chinaoil.org.cn
China Huiyi Information Website: www.chinajci.com
Century Agricultural Network: www.2lagri.com
China soybean network: www.dadou.com.cn
(2) Soybean meal
Soybean meal is a by-product obtained after soybean oil is extracted. According to different extraction methods, it can be divided into two types: primary soaked soybean meal and second soaked soybean meal. Among them, the by-product after extracting soybean oil by leaching method is primary soaked soybean meal, and the by-product obtained after first extracting oil by pressing, and then extracting oil by leaching is second soaked soybean meal. The production technology of the first soaked soybean meal is relatively advanced, and the protein content is high. It is the main variety currently circulating in the domestic spot market.
Like soybeans, the United States is also the world's leading producer of soybean meal, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production. Brazil and the European Economic Community each account for 15% -20% of world production. The United States and Brazil are major exporters of soybean meal. The European Community is the main importer of soybean meal. Japan is also a major importer. About 75 percent of U.S. soybean meal production is used for domestic animal feed.
At present, the main exporters of soybean meal in the world are Argentina, Brazil, the United States, India and other countries. Among them, Argentina and Brazil have always accounted for the world's largest soybean meal exports.
In recent years, China's crushing industry has developed rapidly, and the development speed of China's soybean meal has maintained an annual growth rate of about 20%. As early as 2009, its output surpassed that of the United States, ranking first in the world. With the rapid development of the crushing industry in coastal areas in recent years, coastal areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong have become the main soybean meal production bases in my country.
Soybean meal is a by-product of soybean processing, and the amount of soybean supply directly determines the supply of soybean meal. Under normal circumstances, the increase in soybean supply will inevitably lead to an increase in the supply of soybean meal. There are two main sources of soybeans, one is domestic soybeans, and the other is imported soybeans.
The price of soybeans directly affects the cost of soybean meal production. In recent years, many large crushing enterprises in my country choose imported soybeans as raw materials for processing, and the price of imported soybeans has a more obvious impact on the price of soybean meal in my country.
The current output of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, soybean crushing income, and production costs. Generally speaking, there is an inverse relationship between the output of soybean meal and the price of soybean meal. The larger the output of soybean meal, the lower the price; on the contrary, the lower the production of soybean meal, the higher the price of soybean meal.
Soybean meal inventory is an important part of the total output, and the amount of previous inventory reflects the tightness of supply. When there is a shortage of supply, the price goes up, and when there is a lot of supply, the price goes down. Because soybean meal is not easy to preserve, once the stock of soybean meal increases, the price of soybean meal will often be lowered.
my country is a big consumer of soybean meal. In recent years, soybean meal consumption has maintained an annual growth rate of more than 8%. The use of soybean meal in poultry feed industry accounts for 52%, so the impact of livestock and poultry prices directly constitutes the impact on feed demand. Under normal circumstances, there is a clear positive correlation between the prices of livestock and poultry and the price of soybean meal. More than 90% of soybean meal consumption is used for various feeds, so the prosperity of the feed industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean meal.
Soybean meal related websites:
American Grains Council: www.grains.org
CME Group: www.cmegroup.com
China Feed Online: www.chinafeedonline.com
American Soybean Association: www.soygrowers.com
China Agricultural Information Network: www.agri.gov.cn
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: www.fao.org
Century Agricultural Network: www.2lagri.com
United States Department of Agriculture: www.usda.gov
China Huiyi Information Website: www.chinajci.com
China Animal Husbandry Information Network: www.caaa.cn
China soybean network: www.dadou.com.cn
(3) Rebar
From 2000 to the present, with the global financial crisis in 2008 and the supply-side reform in 2016 as inflection points, the steel industry has experienced three small cycles. From 2000 to 2007, driven by the marketization of real estate, steel production, especially construction steel production, increased significantly. During this period, the annual growth rate of crude steel and steel mills reached a maximum of about 30%.
After the financial crisis in 2008, my country used administrative means to underpin the economy. The production capacity of the iron and steel industry continued to rise under the double impetus of demand and liquidity. The growth rates of crude steel and steel production reached small peaks in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Affected by factors such as the slowdown in investment growth and overcapacity, the overall output of crude steel and steel products showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2015.
After the supply-side reform of the steel industry was promoted in 2016, the steel industry entered the third stage of structural adjustment.
Rebar is one of the steel products with the largest output in my country. It is mainly used in civil engineering construction such as real estate, bridges, and roads, etc., and is closely related to infrastructure investment. There is a close positive correlation between the increase in the supply of rebar and wire rod resources and the increase in fixed asset investment.
Rebar is mainly distributed in the market, and its pricing is basically close to the spot market. The seasonality of rebar steel is prominent, and the reduction of overcapacity will lead to the recovery of winter storage willingness. The production and sales of various steel products have contradictions between continuous production and periodic demand. Since most rebar steel is used in the construction industry, it is affected by seasons and climates. The impact is more pronounced.
Through the research on the influence of traders' inventory adjustment and market supply and demand, the trend of rebar and wire rod is caused by the continuous repetition of the four inventory stages of traders "active inventory replenishment-passive inventory removal-active inventory removal-passive inventory replenishment". The strength of the previous winter storage will determine the position of the high point of inventory.
East China is the largest producer and largest consumer of rebar in my country. Its output accounts for about 1/3 of the total domestic output, followed by North China and Central China. The combined output of the three places accounts for about 2/3 of the country.
Due to the large steel output in my country, some data have a greater impact on steel:
Import and export data: Around the 8th of each month, my country is a big exporter of steel and a big importer of iron ore, so we must pay attention to the import and export data.
Supply and demand data: production data of pig iron, crude steel and coking coal coke in each mid-term, as well as related data on fixed asset investment, real estate, infrastructure, etc. In July, it will be released on July 17, usually at ten o'clock in the morning. It also needs attention.
Downstream data PMI: There are several versions of PMI on the market. In terms of importance, the first is the official manufacturing PM data on the last day of each month. This covers large and medium-sized enterprises and is relatively comprehensive. Refer to The second is the Caixin manufacturing PMI on the 1st of each month, which reflects the manufacturing situation in the previous month. There is a distinction between industries, mainly for steel mills, and what reflects the production and sales of steel mills.
(4) PTA (purified terephthalic acid)
One of the important bulk organic raw materials, its main purpose is to produce polyester fiber (polyester), polyester bottle flakes and polyester film, widely used in chemical fiber, light industry, electronics, construction and other fields. PTA is the end product of petroleum, its raw material is p-xylene (PX), and the raw material of PX is petroleum. PTA is the front-end product of chemical fiber, and its downstream products are mainly polyester filament, staple fiber and chips.
PTA is continuous production and continuous consumption. Production and consumption can be adjusted according to market conditions. At the same time, PTA spot transactions are dominated by direct sales, the relationship between upstream and downstream production and sales is relatively stable, and the production and sales ratio is relatively high. Therefore, the manufacturer's inventory is very small. The value of PTA is high, and the funds occupy a lot. Downstream polyester manufacturers generally only save more than 10 days of consumption. Those with large stocks are generally traders and spot speculators.
The source of PTA is petroleum, and the average correlation with crude oil price is 0.78. Therefore, the price of crude oil has an impact on PTA. In addition, the downstream product of PTA is polyester, which is the same raw material for textiles as cotton. The two are a substitute relationship. The price relationship between the two will affect their respective usage in textile ingredients, thereby affecting the demand for PTA.
my country is the world's largest producer and exporter of textiles. Appreciation of the renminbi will reduce the export competitiveness of textiles, and the textile market situation will in turn directly affect the development of the chemical fiber industry and the upstream PTA industry. On the other hand, the appreciation of the RMB means that the price of imported PX denominated in US dollars is more attractive, which may lead to an increase in the corresponding quotation.
(5) Sugar
Sugar is a natural sweetener, a necessity in people's daily life; it is also an indispensable raw material in beverages, candies, pastries and other sugary foods and pharmaceutical industries. The raw material for sugar production is mainly sugar cane, followed by sugar beets. Despite the difference in raw materials, there is little difference in quality between cane sugar and beet sugar.
Sugarcane is a crop suitable for planting in the tropics and subtropics, and is mainly distributed in most developing countries and a few developed regions in South America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and Africa.
Beets grow in temperate regions. It is mainly distributed in developed countries in Europe and North America, such as the European Union, the northern United States and Canada, and a small amount in Asia, such as Japan, Russia and northern my country.
Some countries such as China, USA, Japan, Egypt, Spain, Argentina and Pakistan produce both cane sugar and beet sugar.
From a global perspective, the use of sugarcane to produce sugar is far greater than that of beet, and the ratio of the two is roughly 7:3.
my country is an important producer and consumer of sugar, with a basic balance between production and sales, with a slight gap, which is mainly made up by imported sugar and state sugar reserves.
Imported sugar is mainly raw sugar, and part of the imported raw sugar is intergovernmental trade (that is, more than 400,000 tons of Cuban sugar per year), and this part directly enters the national reserve to form "national sugar storage". Sugar is placed on the market in the form of auction, and after being processed into finished sugar by refineries, it enters the domestic market for free circulation; the other part of imported raw sugar is general trade imported sugar, that is, sugar processing enterprises that have obtained import quotas import raw sugar in the international sugar market. The finished sugar processed by the refining sugar factory enters the domestic market for free circulation; in addition, there is still a part of the finished sugar imported by my country's general trade, and this part of the finished sugar directly enters the domestic market for free circulation.
Sugar is produced in 18 provinces and regions in my country, with cane sugar in the south and beet sugar in the north. The production areas of white sugar are mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other provinces and autonomous regions. Among them, 95.5% of the national sugar production is concentrated in the five advantageous provinces of Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, Hainan and Xinjiang.
As it is an agricultural product, sugar production in various countries will inevitably be affected by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. The instability of sugar production and sales is the main reason for price fluctuations. my country's sugar consumption mainly depends on domestic production, and the large changes in domestic sugar production have directly caused the instability of market supply and demand, leading to fluctuations in market prices. At the same time, the change in consumption is also an important factor affecting the relationship between supply and demand. In recent years, my country's sugar consumption has entered a period of rapid growth. In this case, changes in the relationship between production and sales will become more unstable.
Sugar is a bulk commodity that is produced seasonally and sold annually, and there is a saying in the sugar industry that "seven deaths, eight survivors, and nine return". Before May, due to the fact that all production areas are in production, the supply of goods is sufficient, and there is a lot of room for merchants to choose. In addition, sugar factories are in urgent need of funds, so the price is chaotic.
After entering July, the financial pressure of many manufacturers has eased, and the pressure on the production and sales ratio has also decreased. Out of an instinctive optimism about the outlook, or a heavy psychological reluctance to sell, it is natural to slow down the pace of sales. I also feel that it is too early to stock up, and the peak season in the true sense has not yet arrived, so the sugar market in July will not have much vitality.
After entering August, there are only two months left for sales. The traditional Mid-Autumn Festival is just around the corner, and the peak of sugar consumption will begin, so the market has a little more vitality. In September, as the sale of old sugar is coming to an end, and new sugar has not yet been launched, the price may rise.
In addition, sugar substitutes mainly include saccharin, sweeteners, cornstarch sugar, etc., which are widely used in snacks, beverages, preserves and other foods. Although it is impossible to completely replace sugar, its use reduces the normal market share of sugar. , has a certain impact on the supply and price of sugar land.
(6) Crude oil
The distribution of oil resources in the world is extremely unbalanced overall: from the perspective of the eastern and western hemispheres, about 3/4 are concentrated in the eastern hemisphere, and the western hemisphere accounts for 1/4; from the perspective of the northern and southern hemispheres, they are mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere. Such as the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Mexico oil fields and North African oil fields, as well as North Sea oil fields, Russian Siberia oil fields, Volga-Ural oil fields, etc.
In terms of consumption, the United States, China, India, Japan, and Saudi Arabia are the major consuming countries, among which the United States is the world's largest oil consumer, and the fastest growing oil consumption is China, which has now become the world's second largest oil consumer country.
my country's crude oil production is mainly concentrated in the Northeast, Northwest, North China, Shandong and Bohai Bay and other regions, while consumption covers the whole country, and the centers are mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta and other regions. At present, my country's crude oil is mainly consumed in the industrial sector, followed by transportation, agriculture, commerce and consumption. Among them, industrial oil consumption accounts for more than 50% of the country's total oil consumption; transportation oil consumption is second only to industry, accounting for about 25%.
The price of the international crude oil market is jointly determined by the prices of the crude oil spot market and the futures market. Therefore, factors that affect the spot price of crude oil, namely the contradiction between supply and demand in the crude oil market, will also affect the price of crude oil futures.
However, crude oil futures prices and spot prices will also deviate for a short period of time, so there are some special factors that will affect crude oil futures prices, such as financial factors such as investment fund speculation. In addition, crude oil is a commodity, and like other commodities, its price is also determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
The vast majority of demand for crude oil comes from refiners. In the crude oil sales market, the way of buying and selling through long-term agreements continues to exist, and the spot trading market continues to develop. In addition, a considerable amount of business is completed in the form of swaps. In this way, refining Traders and other crude oil buyers exchange crude oil of different grades and delivery locations in their hands (cross-market swap); or swap crude oil at different delivery times (cross-time swap).
Swap trading of different grades of crude oil is necessary because different refiners do not refine all types of crude oil efficiently, they only do so for a limited number of them. In addition, changes in consumer demand for various petroleum products, such as an increase in demand for gasoline and a decrease in demand for gasoline, will also prompt refiners to conduct swap transactions for different grades of crude oil, but the level of grades is also affected by their own refining technical constraints. The cross-time swap transaction allows refiners to freely choose the time of delivery of crude oil, thus deciding to speed up or delay the plan of oil refining.
Finally, crude oil is not an ordinary commodity. It is an important strategic material and a special commodity. There are many factors that affect the international crude oil price, and it is also influenced by international politics, economy, diplomacy and military affairs to a large extent.
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