(1) Technical analysis is one-sided
I have read countless books and articles on technical analysis, so I know that the result of learning 99% of the books on the market is-lose! Because most of these books are very one-sided and do not have a high success rate. For example, books on stocks often use an example of the most violent rise and doubled several times to explain a golden cross to illustrate his technical strength. Most technical analysis books are saying that if this indicator phenomenon occurs, then you will get that result. In fact, it doesn't stand the test at all. Most of the classic technical indicators and K-line combinations, even including morphological breakthroughs, if used without discrimination, the success rate will even be lower than 40%. As a result, there is a phenomenon that if you don't learn technical analysis, you still have a 50% success rate in tossing a coin, but you only have a 40% success rate if you learn technical analysis. Using it according to the textbook will only make you lose money. Technical indicators are of course very useful, but they also require high-level application, otherwise there will be a 50% chance of winning if you don’t learn technology, and the success rate is less than 40% if you learn technology. Behavior patterns determine your results. In general, wrong behavior patterns will inevitably result in repeated mistakes. And being right is just random luck. Fortunately, the sow also climbed the tree. Using technical analysis to operate is a behavioral pattern, which is quite stable, so it can be stabilized at a low success rate or a high success rate for a long time. So there is the possibility of continuous improvement and profit.
(2) Technical analysis cannot put the cart before the horse
do what? Of course, it is to predict the trend to make money! Everyone is working hard to make money. Art number, technical analysis, fundamental analysis. The technical indicators are also full of tricks and unconventional. However, everyone knows that when the technical indicators have a golden cross, they can be bought, but they often don't think about why the golden cross should be bought? The reason for buying is to judge that the price will rise, so you have to buy to make money, but if it is golden cross, it must rise, and if it is dead cross, it must fall? Of course it's impossible, it's just a matter of whether the success rate is large or small. How to identify incorrect entry and improve the success rate? Then we have to mention the question of essence. If you don't study the essence and stay at the appearance, then the cart is putting the cart before the horse. Almost all technical indicators are calculated according to the price in a certain way, that is to say, they follow the price fluctuations, not ahead of the price fluctuations. It is impossible for any indicator to perfectly express and judge the nature of price fluctuations. Undoubtedly, there are many limitations, so it needs the cooperation of various technologies and even manual comprehensive judgment and filtering to do well. Including some so-called leading indicators, it is actually impossible to predict! It is just a judgment based on price calculations or speculative data, indicators, not prophetic rules. If when an indicator buy signal is issued, the market situation does not reflect a higher probability of the market rising, so why buy it? If the indicators are stuck together, buy and sell signals are frequently sent out, do you still have to do it? If the golden cross occurs after a lot of rise, then this golden cross may mean that a decline or consolidation is coming. In fact, the price determines the indicator, not the indicator determines the price. Through technical analysis, we try to find out the bias of market sentiment, the bias of long and short, and the divergence and unity of mainstream forces, so as to judge the long and short. The popularity bias determines the capital bias, and the price is driven by funds.
(3) Fate may have been preordained
No matter how good your analysis is and how sure you feel, when you place an order, you are placing a bet. Assuming that you earn 20 points each time and set a stop loss of 40 points, then you need to make two trades to make up for one loss, that is, the 66.6% success rate can only break even. Only a 70% winning rate can make a slight profit. Undoubtedly, to achieve a success rate of more than 75% to make a profit is a dead end for ordinary people, and it is almost doomed to lose money. Only a few people can do it, and even if it can be done, it is not a good way . Conversely, if you earn 40 points every time and set a stop loss of 20 points, you only need a 33.3% success rate to break even, and a 40% success rate to make a meager profit. If you earn 60 points each time and set a stop loss of 20 points, you can make money with a 30% winning rate. The trading masters who make the most money outside the box do not have a high success rate or even only 40%, because they lose less when they lose money, and they are good at increasing their profits in a timely manner when they make money.
The profit model is nothing more than earning more and losing less overall, because it is impossible to make every profit. There are 1 modes, high winning rate, earning more times than losing. But taking a risk of one point should not be less than one point of profit, and more than 50% power can also make money. It is necessary to have a good technique. 2. The winning rate is low, but if you make a profit, you must withstand the loss of 2 or even 5 transactions. This strategy can be used by people who are not technically in place. This only requires a certain technical foundation, a rough trading strategy that follows the trend, and then controls the risk-benefit ratio, using mathematical model control to achieve the result and finally profit. The behavior model determines the result, and the ending may have been decided from the beginning.
(4) Every opportunity may be a trap
Every day, there are always many people staring at the computer and waiting for every opportunity in the market, absolutely not allowed to miss any opportunity.
Maybe you think it’s activated now, this K line is more powerful, this guy has finally started to exert his strength, let’s enter the market! Everyone in the market has seen it, so is everyone making money? Of course it is impossible. It is impossible for most people to make money in the financial market. This is the basis for the existence of the financial market. The market is a big fool, and there are often some specious so-called opportunities and launches before the real launch. You always want to seize every opportunity, so you will not miss the traps that account for the majority. Nervous people are often dizzy by the market. To be a winner, you must have enough technology and experience to avoid these traps, and only make a small number of relatively reliable opportunities.
(5) Not conducive to long-term survival mode
The following are the operating modes that are not conducive to long-term survival and novice survival
1. Do both long and short intraday trading, regardless of trends. It is not so easy to make full use of all opportunities. Most people can't do it.
2. Often operate against the trend. And those who feel that it is almost time to go, guess the top and bottom, and those who follow the trend are just borrowing strength, and sailing against the current is thankless.
3. After placing an order, the loss locks up the order. Most people will make guesses without a strong basis in their minds, or want to narrow the gap after locking up the order. )
4. If you make a loss after placing an order, you will think that you have made a mistake to close the position and do it in the opposite direction immediately, but there is no reliable technical basis. Even if you make a mistake, you will double and reverse it, and make more mistakes. In most cases, you can indeed make money, but sooner or later One day they all went bankrupt.
5. It is a taboo to increase the position in the case of heavy positions or losses, and it is also the road to sudden losses!
6. Excessive price chasing is also easy to get caught.
7. Break through after a lot of ups and downs. At this time, the use of machinery to break through and open positions is easy to be reversed or falsely broken through. Empty on the floor, more on the ceiling.
(6) luck
It is said that luck is unreliable, but some people are just lucky, and they came back after getting hundreds of points a few times. Take a closer look, they are all orders following the general trend.
In fact, luck is related to behavior patterns. But luck and the trend are also unreliable. You can’t stop loss just because of the trend, because the trend will always reverse, so as long as you make a mistake once, you may lose your position.
(7) Signal application of technical analysis
The bullish trend callback uses technical bottoming or a small cycle to launch a bullish attack signal to buy. In the short market, long stocks rise and sell with the signal of peaking or the signal of small cycle short attack. The reliability of the peaking signal for the bullish trend is small, and the reliability of the bottoming signal for the short trend is small. The short trend is downward, and the possibility of trend continuation is always greater than that of reversal. There can be multiple rebounds in a downtrend, but there is only one final reversal. In terms of probability, various short selling signals are the most accurate. When a buy signal occurs in a bearish trend technique, you think that a rebound or reversal is about to start, but in fact it is not very reliable, and even if it happens, it is often not strong enough. On the other hand, since the trend of the bull market is more likely to continue, isn't it more reliable to use the signal of buying at the bottom in the bull market?
(8) advance and retreat right and wrong
It is most likely to happen in actual combat. After placing an order, you only think about the direction of your own order, and you don’t think about the wrong situation. Don’t just think about the positive side. If you place an order, if it is contrary to what you want, then where is it? reliable support? How far is it from here? If it's too far, forget it. If it is in the form of rebound buying and the drop is less than 38%, consider giving up.
(9) Launch and breakthrough signals, false breakthroughs
The market is full of tempting and confusing signals. In the small cycle, there are many obviously prominent K-lines. How to filter? In many cases, contrarian signals are not reliable and should be used sparingly. Note that microscopic things such as one or two K-lines, the breaking of the moving average in some cases, often cannot change the whole. Sometimes it is not so stable. Subtle details may be the fuse of the overall collapse, but they often only play a role in driving the trend within tens of minutes. If you don't come out in time, you will have problems. So wait, maybe a more definitive breakout establishment signal will happen, at the cost of only 10 or 20 pips more. There may also be a strong retrograde after a slight breakthrough. The signal at this time is extremely clear! What we need is a strong and powerful signal, which does not need to be carefully observed. It is so clear and strong that this kind of signal can truly stimulate and call on the big funds in the market to follow, and then move forward indomitably. Those weak signals that need to be carefully observed may be obvious in a small period, but they are not strong. Such signals are unreliable, and there is a high possibility of false breakthroughs. In addition, there is an obvious retrograde immediately after the order is placed, indicating that it may be wrong, although not necessarily, if there is a chance, it should be out of the game with a small loss or with capital preservation. You can't see flat money or small profits and start fantasizing again. Breakthrough? Attack? In order to find these signals, in essence, we are not looking for a golden cross or a positive line, but a breakthrough of the situation! If the trend has clearly broken the original pattern of consolidation, then It is credible, if not, why believe it? A false breakthrough is actually a breakthrough, but it has gone in the opposite direction. Deliberately created a trap that triggers a stop loss order)! After a breakthrough, it weakens quickly, and even breaks in the opposite direction.
(10) Small stop loss strategy
Some people stop the loss at 10 pips and require that the order will not be subject to shocks, that is, the trend will never return. This kind of order. There are only two types: one is extreme edge trading with strong support pressure. One is a one-sided and powerful trend. When entering the field, the attack must be strong, otherwise there will be no situation where the other side is unable to fight back or unintentionally overwhelming. Do not participate in any slow-moving exercise, otherwise it is easy to be knocked out, and unnecessary bleeding is also fatal.
(11) Increase in intraday trading
Only in strong trends and strong fluctuations can there be enough space, and it is easier to break through various resistances. This kind of list can be considered to increase positions and use trailing stops. Even transactions that follow the trend are not always going forward, so increasing positions within the day is not possible Take it lightly, only if you determine the big fluctuations. The weak contrarian fluctuations are limited, only within 10 to 30 points, and generally do less or not. The position must be precise, never chase the price, and never increase the position. The position is not even as good as opening a position with 2 units. If you open 2 units, make a profit and then make half of it. To make a profit, it is necessary to keep the profit in time, especially when the speed is very slow or when it is not going well. In addition, it is not suitable to use a moving stop loss. After all, the profit is very small, and the return is more than ten points, what else? It is better to close the position directly at the resistance level.
(12) Trading strategy
All the important rules are to follow the trend, look for the weak direction and use technical signals instead of forcing. Similarly, weak direction and strength are not suitable for chasing or increasing positions, and the same is true for small-level graphics, because they do not have that much effect. The rest is specific technique and discipline. Taking advantage of the trend to increase positions is not only the direction of the current intraday fluctuation momentum, but also the direction that is consistent with the 4h and even the daily band. Only in this way can we provide a broad space imagination and market impact.
(13) Size cycle
A small callback in a large cycle and a small cycle is already a reversal pattern. Therefore, in many cases, the reversal of the small cycle is not terminated very quickly, because the return slip of the larger cycle is already in place. The large and small cycles match each other, and the technical rules of small cycle fluctuations are effective before encountering the technical position rules of the large cycle rules, but after that, the small cycle rules will become invalid! For example, in the 4H downward trend, when it rebounds, you can fall back and touch the Bollinger Bands in 15 minutes to buy, but if it rises to the upper track of the 4H Bollinger Bands and then falls, it will not work, because the rules of the big cycle determine that it will fall a lot. Arms can't twist thighs. Small cycles are mostly controlled by large cycles. The contradiction between large and small cycles is generally not contradictory, but I didn't notice that these movements are all in the palm of the large cycle.
(14) let’s talk about increasing positions
If the profit is too small to ensure the safety of increasing the position or there is not enough space in the future, it is indeed impossible to increase the position. But there is another important point. If the situation is very good after you place an order, and a new purely good order point appears, then it is irrelevant. Because of the small profits in front, there is more reason to win, because the total The loss is small. Assuming that your position is profitable and continues to run under a strong trend, then when you have already calculated to open 2 new positions, and you plan to hit a stop loss of 15 points (the specific amount depends on the situation), the old gain There are already 4 shares of profit positions, so the loss of 15 points back is 6 shares of 15 points! Calculated in this way, is there still a profit? If there is, then under the condition that you have controlled the absolute profit, it is no big deal to go all out! Then I can use a 15-point trailing stop loss in the old position! Then open a position, set a 15-point stop loss, and add a 15-point trailing stop loss! I don’t have to wait for him to be hit when I set a trailing stop loss, and I have a profit , I can consider the issue of closing positions as long as I call back at 15 points to close all positions! So the whole process is already under control, so what if it is close to a full position? This kind of position control is to increase the position after it is absolutely risk-free rather than seemingly risk-free , to be watertight!
(15) disagreement
When the popularity collapses, there are the least differences, so the variables are the fewest and the power is the greatest. On the contrary, when there are many differences, there are many variables. When the trend is strong, there are few divergences, but there will be divergences after a few waves of ups and downs. become volatile. If possible, I will try to wait for the market to go from divergent to unified, and the running-in shows a clear direction.
(16) Main supporting pressure
Overbought and oversold, golden section, Bollinger bands, horizontal lines, trend lines, moving averages, pivot points, integers, divergence.
Select some of these elements depending on personal preference, and draw them in advance to avoid omissions. The effect of multi-position golden section overlapping is better, and the effect of floating golden section is not good. Various technologies can form a synergy effect, otherwise the effect is relatively poor. The effect of upward pressure is generally poor, and it is not credible to use the lower support effect of short trend. It is not credible. Nor is it allowed to believe in support! Short positions are similar.
(17) Keep making mistakes
Not everyone can achieve a success rate of more than 80%, and more people have a success rate of less than 70%. The foothold of trading strategy technology is not to make profits from constant correctness, but to make profits from constant mistakes. Can make a profit, because we only have a little success rate at the beginning. Until we reach the level of high success rate. But in fact, the success rate is not directly proportional to the amount of money. Keep summing up, what is the reason before placing an order? The mentality fluctuations and changes in the process of holding orders, the reasons for flat orders, and the summary of right and wrong. If you put more effort into this, you can avoid repeating the same mistakes too many times, and if you lose less, you will improve. The profit model is summarized, and the profit will be more. It is also a good way to wait patiently, only make your own stable profit model, and do one trick at a time when you are mature.
(18) There are always variables, always add stop loss
This order made a lot of money, pure luck! ! ! Who knows whether the trailing stop loss will be eaten up? It is very possible that there are 10 points left in half a day, and even a lot of stop losses are hit as soon as the position is opened. Technology is nothing more than the addition of experience and technology. No matter how stable the profit is planned in advance, it may fail in the end. So every time you place an order, you need to place a stop loss. If you don't think about the negative side, you will often lose your objectivity. It is said that a certain emperor asked the Supreme Emperor how to avoid liquidation, and Wei Xiaobao handed over four words: always add stop loss.
Add
